2023 NFL Draft QB Prospect Rankings and Comparisons
I spent the first few weeks of my winter break diving into the top QBs in this draft class. Here is what I think.
Intro:
The 2023 NFL Draft is loaded with QB talent. QBs Bryce Young, CJ Stroud, Will Levis, and Anthony Richardson have all received top 5 pick hype from the national media, is that hype warranted? Are these QBs worth a first round pick? Where would I select them? What teams are the best fit for each prospect? Who are each of these players going to end up like? These are the main questions I look to answer.
(The Order of the QBs is in no relative ranking/organization)
*comparison: ceiling / floor
Jaren Hall, BYU: 24 years old, 6’1, 205 lbs
After being the backup for 3 years, Jaren Hall took over as the BYU QB after Zach Wilson was drafted #2 overall in 2021. Hall lead the Cougars to 18 total wins in his 2 years as a starter, throwing for over 5500 yards and 50 touchdowns in that timeframe. Hall isn’t seen as a scrambler but does not lack mobility, running for exactly 800 yards in his time at BYU. Hall is one of the older QBs in this draft at 24, but has some of the most experience and spent 3 years from a future NFL 1st round pick. Hall doesn't quite have the upside that other QBs in this draft have, but has the football knowledge to elevate his game to a higher level.
Strengths:
Throws while rolling to his right very well, abnormally well (best trait)
throws with good accuracy
gets good arc on deep balls
gets ball out quick
while not having the best arm, gets it done with timing and accuracy
at his best with a clean pocket
does his best to avoid sacks
has a good eternal play clock, knows when to get rid of ball/run
good scrambler when pocket collapses
Weaknesses:
bad footwork
throws almost entirely with his arm, doesn’t seem to incorporate lower half into his throws, leads to lack of power
struggles to layer the ball towards receivers, all rainbows
struggles mightily under pressure
has never taken a snap under center
doesn't read field particularly well yet
struggles to generate any velocity on balls, doesn’t/won’t throw into tight windows without consequence
Struggles to throw a consistent spiral, no eye candy, hard to catch, a lot of ducks
Player comparison: Russell Wilson with an injured shoulder / JT Barrett
Squire Draft Projection: 4th round pick
Will Levis, Kentucky: 23 years old, 6’3, 230 lbs
Will Levis is easily the most controversial QB in this draft class. Levis has by far the arm in this draft class but arguably the worst college statistics out of all of the QBs in this class. Levis never eclipsed 3000 yards in a collegiate season and has thrown double digit interceptions in both years as Kentucky’s starter. What makes Levis so interesting is his good mechanics and his absolute cannon of a right arm. The UK QB’s arm talent alone makes him a potential top 5 selection.
Strengths:
One of the best arms the NFL will ever see
Generates immense velocity on balls, is able to hit throws through tight windows and bad reads
big frame that can absorb hits
mobile enough for it to be noticeable
isn’t afraid to take deep ball shots, dion waiters mentality
was genuinely sabotaged by his offensive weapons, scheme, and OL
isn’t afraid to throw check down
sees defenses at a very good rate, trusts his arm and himself
Weaknesses:
could improve mechanics
gives up in pocket to quickly
needs to prove he can make the “easy” throws consistently
freaks out under pressure, loses all sense of mechanics and drops reads
Comparison: Peak Carson Wentz / Christian Hackenberg
Squire Draft Projection: top-10 selection
Sam Hartman, Wake Forest: 23 years old, 6’1, 210 lbs
Sam Hartman has started many games as Wake Forest’s QB1 and his long tenure with the school has finally come to an end. Hartman compiled over 12500 yards and 107 touchdowns in his collegiate career, ending up as one of the best Wake Forest QBs ever. Hartman not only holds the record for most passing touchdowns in school history, but he has the record by 47 over Riley Skinner.
Strengths:
biggest strength is his accuracy within 15 yards
Good not great arm strength
capable of making most nfl throws
sells play action well
good accuracy in short and intermediate throws
good at throwing screen passes
good ball placement
Weaknesses:
Not an runner, not mobile, not gonna scare anyone in the run game
taps ball with regularity
too many pump fakes
doesn’t read the field deep
terrible deep ball accuracy
very predictable thrower
big overthrow problem
Comparison: Jimmy Garoppolo / Blaine Gabbert
Squire Draft Projection: 6th round pick
Hendon Hooker, Tennessee: 24 years old, 6’4, 220 lbs
Hendon Hooker was the 2022 Heisman winner until he suffered a torn ACL on November 19th. In the 11 games he appeared in, he threw 3100 yards, 27 touchdowns, and only 2 interceptions. Hooker was exceptional but the knee injury derailed his season and his draft stock. Hooker was looking like a surefire 1st round pick, but since backup Joe Milton took over Hooker’s value has been a major question. As I write this, the big issues with Hooker and his draft projection are, his age, his health, and his ability. How much does Hendon Hooker elevate this Tennessee team? The answer is still unknown as of right now. However, the questions currently being asked are sent Hooker’s draft projection into a free fall.
Strengths:
Very poised in pocket
good scrambler
good speed for QB
trusts his WRs
tight spiral
good arm action
good deep ball
can throw on the run
shakes off hits
good arm, gets a lot of loft under the football
can throw the ball under pressure
Weaknesses:
college system at Tennessee does not translate to NFL (vertical offense)
was never asked to look through progressions as a QB so doesn’t read field like an NFL QB should yet
will be 25 before start of rookie season, oldest QB in the draft
has inconsistent mechanics
struggles to get into a groove, no consistency in play/results
Not NFL ready despite his age, would likely have to red shirt year rookie year at 25 years old
Comparison: Jalen Hurts / DeShone Kizer
Squire Draft Projection: 3rd round pick
Tyler van Dyke, Miami: 21 years old, 6’4, 225 lbs
Tyler van Dyke took over Miami’s starting QB role in the 2021 season, posting great numbers and leading Miami to 7 wins. Van Dyke took home the 2021 ACC conference Offensive Player of the Year award. However in 2022, Van Dyke fell off of a cliff. Van Dyke struggled in almost every facet of the game and his unbreakable confidence that fueled his break out 2021 season, seemed to become a flaw in 2022.
Strengths:
good arm, capable of making NFL throws
good mechanics
very confident thrower, doesn’t shy away from big moments
surprisingly athletic
Weaknesses:
does not see field well, prone to creating ugly turnovers
forces passes into tight windows
struggles to deliver in big moments
still very raw, needs to improve on situational awareness
Comparison: Sam Bradford / Zach Mettenberger
Squire Draft Projection: 6th round
Anthony Richardson, Florida: 21 years old, 6’4, 230 lbs
Anthony Richardson is the most intriguing QB in this class. Richardson is an elite runner and pairs it with a cannon of an arm. Richardson has every tool to be a future superstar in the NFL, he just needs the time and right coaching to make it happen. Leading one of the worst Florida teams of all time to 6 wins while throwing for 2500 yards and rushing for over 600.
Strengths:
superb runner, both with designed runs and as a scrambler
A+ arm strength
elite speed
shakes tackles like a running back, hard to bring down
great at throwing downfield outside of the pocket
generates elite velocity on short throws
throws a tight spiral, pretty ball
did I mention how amazing he is running the football?
goes through progressions at an advanced rate
good not great accuracy on short and intermediate throws
Weaknesses:
needs to be a quicker decision maker
second-guesses himself often in the pocket
mechanics are inconsistent
runs backwards away from sacks to often
only started 1 year in college, not as much experience as other qbs in the draft class
must improve accuracy while throwing on the run
drops all sense of mechanics when under pressure
QB Comparison: mix of MVP Cam Newton and Harbaugh Colin Kaepernick / Tyler Huntley
RB comparison: Chase Edmonds
Squire Draft Projection: Top 3 selection
Bryce Young, Alabama: 21 years old, 6’0, 190 lbs
2021 Heisman winner Bryce Young has etched himself into the conversation of greatest Alabama QBs of all time.Not only has Young had some of the most impressive collegiate seasons of all time, he is the surefire #1 overall NFL Draft pick in the eyes of the national media as of right now.
Strengths:
The Game comes really easy to Young, the way he plays looks so effortless
incredibly accurate thrower
great runner
very good at avoiding sacks
doesn’t have the best arm but uses his lower body to generate enough power to hit every throw on the field
ran a 4.4 40, elite speed for a QB
can drive the ball to receivers when needed, good sense of how to layer balls to different receivers
solid under pressure, no moment to big for him
doesn’t crack with DL in his face
Weaknesses:
small frame, could be susceptible to tissue injuries at the next level
seems to enjoy getting hit, durability could be a question at the next level
throws the ball off back foot fading away too often
alabama has a ton of talent to make him look really good
Comparison: Kyler Murray / Jordan Love
Squire Draft Projection: Top 3 selection
C.J. Stroud, Ohio St: 21 years old, 6’3, 220 lbs
CJ Stroud looks to be the 3rd straight Ohio St. QB to be drafted in the first round, joining Dwayne Haskins and Justin Fields. In Stroud’s 2 years as Ohio St’s Starter he has compiled over 7700 yards and throwing 81 total touchdowns. Stroud’s dominance of the air raid offense has NFL teams looking to take Stroud early in the first round, even #1 overall. I don’t quite see it the same way. Ohio State’s offense is very comparable to Tennessee’s vertical air raid offense that focuses on spreading the field and allowing WRs easy ways of getting open. This offensive style is completely foreign to the NFL and has made the path from Ohio St to star NFL qb incredibly difficult. Haskins flamed out as a starter in Washington before being traded for a late pick to Pittsburgh, may he Rest In Peace. Fields has never quite found his groove or gained any trust as a passer in the NFL, but as of right now the best running QB in the league and taking the league by storm for the 3-11 Chicago Bears. Stroud has an uphill battle, it will be interesting to see how teams evaluate him.
Strengths:
excellent accuracy, most accurate qb in draft
gets the ball out fast
good arm strength. can hit throws outside of the numbers consistently
athletic build
good instincts, leads receivers open
tight spiral, throws a pretty ball
good exit velocity on passes, hits throws in tight windows
Weaknesses:
plays for Ohio St. Stroud has the best weapons out of any QB in the NCAA.
Stroud has played with 5 potential 1st round WRs in his 2 years as a starting QB
Lacks mobility despite athletic build
Comparison: McVay Jared Goff / Case Keenum
Squire Draft Projection: top 15
Tanner McKee, Stanford: 22 years old, 6’6, 230 lbs
McKee is a very capable and consistent passer in a rough Stanford offense. McKee doesn’t turn the ball over but struggles to really elevate Stanford into a superior PAC-12 offense. McKee didn’t scare defenses while at Stanford. However, I do not think this was his fault, he played in a rough offense with a generational lack of Stanford talent. McKee attempted to do all he could with what little he had and made a name for himself while doing it.
Strengths:
Reads the field very well
great understanding of pre snap defensive coverage
good arm, can make all NFL throws
very tall, no issue seeing over the OL
sneaky fast
accurate to all levels
nearly perfect mechanics, textbook
played in David Shaw’s West Coast offense, which translates very well to the NFL
loves to take top off of defenses, has the arm strength to continue at the NFL level
Weaknesses:
took a lot of sacks in college
while he has surprisingly good speed, he lacks decent acceleration
needs to improve his touch at all levels of depth
Comparison: Eli Manning / Paxton Lynch
Squire Draft Projection: Late 1st - Early 2nd round pick